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PRACA ORYGINALNA
Makroekonomiczne determinanty decyzji inwestycyjnych średnich i dużych przedsiębiorstw sektora przetwórstwa przemysłowego w Polsce
1
Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw, Poland
2
Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW, Poland
3
University of Warsaw, Poland
Data nadesłania: 22-11-2023
Data ostatniej rewizji: 24-05-2024
Data akceptacji: 08-07-2024
Data publikacji: 21-12-2024
GNPJE 2024;320(4):74-92
SŁOWA KLUCZOWE
Polskakointegracjaśrednie i duże przedsiębiorstwosektor przemysłu przetwórczegomodel wektorowej korekty błędu
KODY KLASYFIKACJI JEL
STRESZCZENIE
Artykuł ma na celu ustalenie wpływu fluktuacji wskaźników makroekonomicznych na skłonności inwestycyjne przedsiębiorstw, mierzone wskaźnikiem intensywności inwestycji – zdefiniowanym jako stosunek wydatków inwestycyjnych do całkowitych przychodów. Analiza obejmuje pięć sektorów przemysłu przetwórczego w Polsce (według Klasyfikacji Działalności PKD) generujących największe przychody. Wykorzystując niepublikowane panelowe dane kwartalne GUS z lat 2008–2022 pochodzące z badań F-01 i F-02, w badaniu skoncentrowano się na średnich i dużych przedsiębiorstwach. Zastosowanie analizy kointegracji oraz modelu wektorowej korekty błędu (VECM) pozwala na określenie wskaźników makroekonomicznych, które trwale wpływają na skłonności inwestycyjne w poszczególnych sektorach. Badanie pozwoliło również stwierdzić sezonowość inwestycji w tych sektorach, ujawnić głęboką długoterminową korelację między inwestycjami korporacyjnymi a wskaźnikami makroekonomicznymi oraz uchwycić zarówno trwałe równowagi, jak i przejściowe fluktuacje. Co istotne dowiedziono w nim zróżnicowany wpływ makroekonomii na decyzje inwestycyjne z PKB i SP jako kluczowymi elementami w sektorze chemicznym (PKD-20) oraz to, że dynamika czasowa i międzysektorowa wyraźnie wpływa na sektor komputerów i elektroniki (PKD-26). Te spostrzeżenia dowodzą złożoności efektów makroekonomicznych w kontekście strategii inwestycyjnych funkcjonujących w ramach przemysłowej struktury Polski.
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