PRACA ORYGINALNA
Specjalizacja handlowa w produktach związanych z automatyzacją – analiza międzynarodowa i przypadek Polski
Więcej
Ukryj
1
Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland
Data nadesłania: 19-11-2024
Data ostatniej rewizji: 27-03-2025
Data akceptacji: 01-04-2025
Data publikacji: 30-09-2025
Autor do korespondencji
Aleksandra Parteka
Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland
GNPJE 2025;(GNPJE Special Issue on Economic Impacts of Generative AI 3):47-67
SŁOWA KLUCZOWE
KODY KLASYFIKACJI JEL
STRESZCZENIE
W artykule wykorzystano dane dotyczące 160 gospodarek (obserwowanych od połowy lat 90. XX w.) do opisu trendów w handlu produktami związanymi z automatyzacją. W analizie użyto danych handlowych na poziomie 6‑cyfrowej dezegregacji HS połączonych z taksonomiami produktów technologicznych, które pozwalają na identyfikację linii eksportowych związanych z automatyzacją oraz pomiar ich znaczenia w krajowych strukturach handlu. Pomimo wzrostu wartości globalnego handlu produktami związanymi z automatyzacją mają one niewielki udział w oficjalnie zarejestrowanym eksporcie (od nieistotnego w gospodarkach o niskich dochodach do 2,5% całkowitego eksportu krajów o wysokich dochodach). W latach 1995–2019 Polska odnotowała wzrost eksportu związanego z automatyzacją zarówno pod względem jego wartości, jak i udziału w eksporcie całkowitym (2,5% w 2019 r.). Specjalizacja eksportowa w produktach związanych z automatyzacją, mierzona wskaźnikiem ujawnionej przewagi komparatywnej, jest dodatnio skorelowana z poziomem dochodu na pracownika, ale nie odegrała statystycznie znaczącej roli w globalnym procesie konwergencji ekonomicznej. Handel szeroko rozumianymi produktami technologicznymi należy natomiast do czynników warunkujących ogólnoświatową konwergencję. W artykule opisano także ograniczenia związane z użyciem danych handlowych do pomiaru międzynarodowych trendów w rozwoju technologii cyfrowych.
PODZIĘKOWANIA
Zuzanna Helena Zarach udzielała doskonałej pomocy badawczej.
FINANSOWANIE
Publikacja została sfinansowana przez Narodowe Centrum Nauki, Polska, grant OPUS nr 2020/37/B/HS4/01302.
REFERENCJE (81)
1.
Acemoglu D. [2008], Introduction to modern economic growth, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
2.
Acemoglu D. [2025], The simple macroeconomics of AI, Economic Policy, 40 (121): 13–58.
3.
Acemoglu D., Autor D. [2011], Skills, tasks and technologies: Implications for employment and earnings, in: Handbook of Labor Economics: 1043–1171, Elsevier.
4.
Acemoglu D., Autor D., Dorn D., Hanson G. H., Price B. [2014], Return of the Solow paradox? IT, productivity, and employment in US manufacturing, American Economic Review, 104 (5): 394–399.
5.
Acemoglu D., Lelarge C., Restrepo P. [2020], Competing with robots: Firm-level evidence from France, AEA papers and proceedings, 110: 383–388.
6.
Acemoglu D., Restrepo P. [2018], The race between man and machine: Implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment, American Economic Review, 108 (6): 1488–1542.
7.
Acemoglu D., Restrepo P. [2019], Automation and new tasks: How technology displaces and reinstates labor, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33 (2): 3–30.
8.
Acemoglu D., Restrepo P. [2022], Demographics and automation, The Review of Economic Studies, 89 (1): 1–44.
9.
Anderson J. E., Yotov Y. V. [2010], The changing incidence of geography, American Economic Review, 100 (5): 2157–2186.
10.
Archibugi D., Coco A. [2005], Measuring technological capabilities at the country level: A survey and a menu for choice, Research Policy, 34 (2): 175–194.
11.
Archibugi D., Denni M., Filippetti A. [2009], The technological capabilities of nations: The state of the art of synthetic indicators, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76 (7): 917–931.
12.
Arendt L., Gałecka-Burdziak E., Núñez F., Pater R., Usabiaga C. [2023], Skills requirements across task-content groups in Poland: What online job offers tell us, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 187: 122245.
13.
Atalay E., Phongthiengtham P., Sotelo S., Tannenbaum D. [2018], New technologies and the labor market, Journal of Monetary Economics, 97: 48–67.
14.
Autor D. [2003], Outsourcing at will: The contribution of unjust dismissal doctrine to the growth of employment outsourcing, Journal of Labor Economics, 21 (1): 1–41.
15.
Bahar D., Choudhury P., Rapoport H. [2020] Migrant inventors and the technological advantage of nations, Research Policy, 49 (9): 103947.
16.
Balassa B. [1965], Trade liberalisation and “revealed” comparative advantage, The Manchester School, 33 (2): 99–123.
17.
Balland P. A., Broekel T., Diodato D., Giuliani E., Hausmann R., O’Clery N., Rigby D. [2022], Reprint of the new paradigm of economic complexity, Research Policy, 51 (8): 104568.
18.
Ballestar M. T., Díaz-Chao Á., Sainz J., Torrent-Sellens J. [2020], Knowledge, robots and productivity in SMEs: Explaining the second digital wave, Journal of Business Research, 108: 119–131.
19.
Bontadini F., Corrado C., Haskel J., Iommi M., Jona Lasinio C. S., Miyagawa T. [2024], Intangible Capital, TFP Growth and Green Shoots in New Productivity Data, International Productivity Monitor, 46: 3–37.
20.
Brynjolfsson E., McAfee A. [2011], Race against the machine: How the digital revolution is accelerating innovation, driving productivity, and irreversibly transforming employment and the economy, Digital Frontier Press, Lexington.
21.
Brynjolfsson E., McAfee A. [2014], The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies, WW Norton & Company, New York.
22.
Brynjolfsson E., Mitchell T., Rock D. [2018], What can machines learn, and what does it mean for occupations and the economy?, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 108: 43–47.
23.
Brynjolfsson E., Rock D., Syverson C. [2019], Artificial intelligence and the modern productivity paradox, The economics of artificial intelligence: An agenda, 23: 23–57.
24.
Cadot O., Carrère C., Strauss-Kahn V. [2011], Export diversification: what’s behind the hump?, Review of Economics and Statistics, 93 (2): 590–605.
25.
Cadot O., Carrère C., Strauss-Kahn V. [2013], Trade diversification, income, and growth: what do we know?, Journal of Economic Surveys, 27 (4): 790–812.
26.
Caliendo L., Parro F. [2015], Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA, The Review of Economic Studies, 82 (1): 1–44.
27.
Caselli F., Coleman W. J. [2001], Cross-Country Technology Diffusion: The Case of Computers, The American Economic Review, 91 (2): 328–335.
28.
Caselli F., Wilson D. J. [2004], Importing technology, Journal of Monetary Economics, 51 (1): 1–32.
29.
Castellani D., Lamperti F., Lavoratori K. [2022] Measuring adoption of industry 4.0 technologies via international trade data: insights from European countries, Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, 49 (1): 51–93.
30.
Costinot A., Donaldson D., Komunjer I. [2012] What goods do countries trade? A quantitative exploration of Ricardo’s ideas, The Review of Economic Studies, 79 (2): 581–608.
31.
Cséfalvay Z. [2020], Robotization in Central and Eastern Europe: catching up or dependence?, European Planning Studies, 28 (8): 1534–1553.
32.
Dalum B., Laursen K., Villumsen G. [1998], Structural change in OECD export specialisation patterns: de-specialisation and ‘stickiness’, International Review of Applied Economics, 12 (3): 423–443.
33.
Domini G., Grazzi M., Moschella D., Treibich T. [2021], Threats and opportunities in the digital era: automation spikes and employment dynamics, Research Policy, 50 (7): 104–137.
34.
Draca M., Sadun R., Van Reenen J. [2007], Productivity and ICT: A Review of the Evidence, in: Mansell R., Avgerou, Ch., Quah, D., Silverstone R. (eds): 100–147, The Oxford Handbook of Information and Communication Technologies, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
36.
Feenstra R. C., Inklaar R., Timmer M. P. [2015], The next generation of the Penn World Table, American Economic Review, 105 (10): 3150–82.
37.
Felipe J., Kumar U., Abdon A., Bacate M. [2012], Product complexity and economic development, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23 (1): 36–68.
38.
Foster-McGregor N., Nomaler Ö., Verspagen B. [2019], Measuring the creation and adoption of new technologies using trade and patent data, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT).
39.
French S. [2017], Revealed comparative advantage: What is it good for?, Journal of International Economics, 106: 83–103.
40.
Gaulier G., Zignago S. [2010], BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level, The 1994–2007 Version CEPII, Working Paper, 2010–23.
41.
Gnidchenko A. A. [2021], Structural transformation and quality ladders: Evidence from the new Theil’s decomposition, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 59: 281–291.
42.
Graetz G., Michaels G. [2018], Robots at work, Review of Economics and Statistics, 100 (5): 753–768.
43.
Growiec J. [2022], Automation, partial and full, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 26 (7): 1731–1755.
44.
Growiec J. [2023], Industry 4.0? Framing the Digital Revolution and Its Long-Run Growth Consequences, Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, 316 (4): 1–16.
45.
Hardy W., Keister R., Lewandowski P. [2016], Do entrants take it all? The evolution of task content of jobs in Poland, Ekonomia. Rynek, gospodarka, społeczeństwo, 47: 23–50.
46.
Hidalgo C. A., Hausmann R. [2009], The building blocks of economic complexity, Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 106 (26): 10570–10575.
47.
Hummels D., Ishii J., Yi K. M. [2001], The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade, Journal of International Economics, 54 (1): 75–96.
48.
IFR [2023], World Robotics Industrial Robot Installations Database.
49.
Inklaar R., O’Mahony M., Timmer M. [2005], ICT and Europe’s productivity performance: industry-level growth account comparisons with the United States, Review of Income and Wealth, 51 (4): 505–536.
50.
Jabłońska J., Mućk J. [2024], Appetite for Destruction: A Firm-level Portrait of Automation in Poland, Working Paper No. 371, Narodowy Bank Polski.
51.
Jorgenson D. W., Ho M. S., Stiroh K. J. [2008], A retrospective look at the US productivity growth resurgence, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22 (1): 3–24.
52.
Koch M., Manuylov I., Smolka M. [2021], Robots and firms, The Economic Journal, 131 (638): 2553–2584.
53.
Kremer M., Willis J., You Y. [2022], Converging to convergence, NBER macroeconomics annual, 36 (1): 337–412.
54.
Kromann L., Malchow-Møller N., Skaksen J. R., Sørensen A. [2020], Automation and productivity—a cross-country, cross-industry comparison, Industrial and Corporate Change, 29 (2): 265–287.
55.
Laursen K. [2015], Revealed comparative advantage and the alternatives as measures of international specialisation, Eurasian Business Review, 5: 99–115.
56.
Levchenko A. A., Zhang J. [2016], The evolution of comparative advantage: Measurement and welfare implications, Journal of Monetary Economics, 78: 96–111.
57.
Lohmann A., Békés G., Hinz J. et al. [2024], Open Source Software Input Output Tables (OSSIO), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 10.22000/SaNahyIFpqpJVFbb.
58.
Maneschi A. [1998], Comparative advantage in international trade: A historical perspective, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham.
60.
Oliner S. D., Sichel D. E., Stiroh K. J. [2008], Explaining a productive decade, Journal of policy Modeling, 30 (4): 633–673.
61.
Pahl S., Timmer M. P. [2019], Patterns of vertical specialisation in trade: long-run evidence for 91 countries, Review of World Economics, 155: 459–486.
62.
Parteka A. [2015], Dywersyfikacja Handlu Zagranicznego a Rozwój Gospodarczy (Trade Diversification and Economic Development), Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
63.
Parteka A., Kordalska A. [2023], Artificial intelligence and productivity: global evidence from AI patent and bibliometric data, Technovation, 125: 102764.
64.
Parteka A., Zarach Z. H., Kordalska A. [2025], Technological content of export diversification–evolution along the economic growth process, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 74: 14–27.
65.
Pieri F., Vecchi M., Venturini F. [2018], Modelling the joint impact of R&D and ICT on productivity: A frontier analysis approach, Research Policy, 47 (9): 1842–1852.
66.
Prettner K., Bloom D. E. [2020], Automation and its macroeconomic consequences: Theory, evidence, and social impacts, Academic Press, Cambridge.
67.
Restrepo P. [2023], Automation: Theory, Evidence, and Outlook, Annual Review of Economics, 16.
68.
Sarin V., Mahapatra S. K., Sood N. [2022], Export diversification and economic growth: A review and future research agenda, Journal of Public Affairs, 22 (3): e2524.
69.
Schwab K. [2024], The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond, in: Handbook of research on strategic leadership in the Fourth Industrial Revolution: 29–34, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham.
70.
Soete L. [1987], The impact of technological innovation on international trade patterns: the evidence reconsidered, Research Policy, 16 (2-4): 101–130.
71.
Timmer M. P., Miroudot S., Vries G. J. de [2019], Functional specialisation in trade, Journal of Economic Geography, 19 (1): 1–30.
73.
Van Ark B., O’Mahony M., Timmer M. P. [2008], The productivity gap between Europe and the United States: trends and causes, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22 (1): 25–44.
74.
Van Roy V., Vertesy D., Damioli G. [2020], AI and robotics innovation: 1–35, Springer International Publishing, London.
75.
Venturini F. [2022], Intelligent technologies and productivity spillovers: Evidence from the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 194: 220–243.
76.
Vollrath T. L. [1991], A theoretical evaluation of alternative trade intensity measures of revealed comparative advantage, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 127 (2): 265–280.
77.
WIPO [2024a], Generative Artificial Intelligence. Patent Landscape Report, World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva.
78.
WIPO [2024b], Global Innovation Index 2024 Unlocking the Promise of Social Entrepreneurship, World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva.
79.
Yeats A. J. [1985], On the appropriate interpretation of the revealed comparative advantage index: implications of a methodology based on industry sector analysis, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 121 (1): 61–73.
80.
Zarach Z. H., Parteka A. [2023], Export diversification and dependence on natural resources, Economic Modelling, 126: 106436.
81.
Zeira J. [1998], Workers, machines, and economic growth, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113 (4): 1091–1117.