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PRACA ORYGINALNA
Czy uprawnienia w publicznym systemie emerytalnym wypierają oszczędności w gospodarce okresu transformacji? Przypadek Polski
 
 
Więcej
Ukryj
1
Collegium of World Economy, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
 
 
Data nadesłania: 25-01-2022
 
 
Data ostatniej rewizji: 15-11-2022
 
 
Data akceptacji: 04-01-2023
 
 
Data publikacji: 31-03-2023
 
 
Autor do korespondencji
Marcin Wroński   

Collegium of World Economy, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
 
 
GNPJE 2023;313(1):19-40
 
SŁOWA KLUCZOWE
KODY KLASYFIKACJI JEL
STRESZCZENIE
Teoria ekonomii nie dostarcza jasnych prognoz dotyczących wpływu uprawnień w publicznym systemie emerytalnym na akumulację majątku prywatnego. Zgodnie z podstawową hipotezą cyklu życia uprawnienia emerytalne powinny w pełni wypierać oszczędności prywatne, jednakże w wielu bardziej zaawansowanych modelach teoretycznych przewiduje się jedynie ograniczony zakres substytucji. Badania empiryczne również nie są rozstrzygające. Celem zrealizowanego badania był pomiar zakresu substytucji pomiędzy uprawnieniami emerytalnymi a majątkiem prywatnym w Polsce. Aby zmierzyć zakres wypierania w długim okresie, dokonano pomiaru substytucji pomiędzy uprawnieniami emerytalnymi a majątkiem prywatnym (net wealth). W celu zidentyfikowania efektów krótkookresowych dokonano pomiaru wpływu uprawnień na konsumpcję i stopę oszczędności. Otrzymane wyniki nie potwierdzają występowania efektu wypierania w długim okresie. Wyniki dotyczące konsekwencji krótkookresowych są zróżnicowane, jednakże wskazują co najwyżej na niewielki zakres substytucji. W krajach przechodzących transformację gospodarczą wpływ uprawnień emerytalnych na majątek prywatny może być słabszy niż w gospodarkach rozwiniętych, ponieważ rozkład majątku był kształtowany przez rzadkie, trudne do przewidzenia zdarzenia, takie jak sama transformacja gospodarcza oraz szeroko zakrojona prywatyzacja zasobu mieszkaniowego w tym okresie.
FINANSOWANIE
Praca powstała w ramach realizacji projektu finansowanego ze środków Narodowego Centrum Nauki w ramach umowy UMO-2019/35/N/HS4/01032.
 
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