RESEARCH PAPER
Evaluating Poland’s Family 500+ Child Support Programme
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Submission date: 2021-07-31
Final revision date: 2022-01-06
Acceptance date: 2022-04-13
Publication date: 2022-06-30
GNPJE 2022;310(2):1-19
KEYWORDS
JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
ABSTRACT
I investigate the immediate effects of the introduction of a large-scale child benefit
programme on the labour supply of household members in Poland. Due to non-random
eligibility and the universal character of the programme, standard evaluation
estimators may be inconsistent. In order to address this issue, I propose an approach
that combines difference-in-difference (DID) propensity score based methods with
the covariate balancing propensity score (CBPS) approach developed by Imai and
Ratkovic [2014]. The DID estimators exploit the time dimension to uncover the
causal effect of interest. The CBPS method is expected to significantly reduce the
bias resulting from systematic differences between treated and untreated subpopulations.
I also account for potential heterogeneity among households by focusing
on comparisons between locally defined subpopulations of individuals, which
jointly provide a comprehensive view on the overall impact. I find that on average
previously employed mothers maintain their labour supply although there are heterogeneous
weak responses depending on the age of the youngest children. Additionally,
mothers who did not work before the introduction of the programme
are even less likely to do so having received the benefit. The fathers’ labour supply
remained mostly unaffected by the programme, with the exception of previously
unemployed fathers, who tend to work more often having received the benefits.
This finding may suggest that the programme strengthens the traditional division
of household roles, with the male being the main earner.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author gratefully acknowledges the support of the Polish National Science Centre (grant No. 2016/23/N/HS4/03637).
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