PL EN
RESEARCH PAPER
The Impact of Foreign Shocks on the Polish Economy
 
More details
Hide details
1
SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Anna Sznajderska   

SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
Submission date: 2020-09-02
Final revision date: 2020-10-23
Acceptance date: 2021-01-16
Publication date: 2021-03-31
 
GNPJE 2021;305(1):33–52
 
KEYWORDS
JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
ABSTRACT
This study concerns the impact of foreign shocks on the Polish economy. We consider output shocks from China, the euro area, and the United States. We estimate structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models with the level of foreign economic activity as an endogenous variable and foreign output shock as an exogenous variable. We identify foreign output shocks outside the model. Our results indicate that a euro-area output shock has the strongest effect on the Polish economy. Meanwhile, the spillover effects from China are similar for Poland and the euro area.
 
REFERENCES (19)
1.
Blagrave P., Vesperoni E. [2016], Spillover implications of China’s slowdown for international trade, Spillover Notes 4, IMF.
 
2.
Blagrave P.,Vesperoni E. [2018], The implications of China’s slowdown for international trade, Journal of Asian Economics, 56 (C): 36–47.
 
3.
Bolt W., Mavromatis K., van Wijnbergen S. [2019], The global macroeconomics of a trade war: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict, CEPR Discussion Paper, 13495.
 
4.
Bussière M., Chudik A., Sestieri G. [2012], Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 119, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
 
5.
Chen W., Chen X., Hsieh Ch., Song Z. [2019], A Forensic Examination of China’s National Accounts, NBER Working Papers, 25754.
 
6.
Chmielewski T., Kapuściński M., Kocięcki A., Łyziak T., Przystupa J., Stanisławska E., Wróbel E. [2018], Monetary transmission mechanism in Poland: What do we know in 2017?, NBP Working Paper 286.
 
7.
Colacito R., Riddiough S. J., Sarno L. [2019], Business cycles and currency returns, CEPR Discus¬sion Paper, 14015, forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Economics.
 
8.
Dieppe A., Gilhooly R., Han J., Korhonen I., Lodge D. [2018], The transition of China to sus¬tainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area, Occasional Paper Series, 206, European Central Bank.
 
9.
Furceri, D., Jalles, J., Zdzienicka, A. [2016], China spillovers: New evidence from time-varying estimates, IMF Spillover Note No. 7, (November).
 
10.
Gauvin, L., and C. Rebillard [2015], Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Global Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing through Trade and Commodity Price Channels, Banque de France Working Paper 562. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2625958.
 
11.
Hanemann T., Huotari M., Kratz A. [2019], Chinese FDI in Europe: 2018 trends and impact of new screening policies, A report by Rhodium Group (RHG) and the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS).
 
12.
Kolasa, M. [2009], Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model, Economic Modelling, 26 (6): 1245–1269.
 
13.
Krippner L. [2017], A comment on Wu and Xia (2016) from a macroeconomic perspective, CAMA Working Papers 2017–41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
 
14.
Krippner L. [2016], Documentation for measures of monetary policy, Reserve Bank of New Zea¬land, https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/med... a2a5-0cad9a5c0c0a.
 
15.
Leszczyńska-Paczesna A. [2020], Sectoral Price Stickiness and Inflation Persistence in Poland: A Two-Sector DSGE Approach, Prague Economic Papers, 29 (2): 152–186.
 
16.
Mwase N., N’Diaye P., Oura H., Ricka F., Svirydzenka K., Zhang Y. [2016], Spillovers from China: financial channels, IMF Spillover Notes, Washington DC, September.
 
17.
Sznajderska A. [2019], The role of China in the world economy: evidence from a global VAR model, Applied Economics, 51 (15): 1574–1587, https://doi.org/10.1080/000368....
 
18.
Sznajderska A., Kapuściński M. [2020], Macroeconomic spillover effects of the Chinese economy, Review of International Economics, 28 (4): 992–1019, https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.1....
 
19.
Wu J. C., Xia F. D. [2016], Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 48 (2–3): 253–291.
 
eISSN:2300-5238
ISSN:0867-0005