The Laffer Effect in OECD Countries: Pension System Impact
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Publication date: 2014-02-28
GNPJE 2014;269(1):141–160
The article is concerned with the so‐called Laffer effect - an effect involving the relationship between possible rates of taxation and the resulting levels of government revenue - in countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The author sets out to designate a maximum of the Laffer curve - a visual representation of the Laffer effect - in the economies of individual OECD countries with institutional pension schemes. To this end, Chrzonstowski uses a mathematical model he developed earlier. The model theoretically predicts the possibility of an effect associated with the Laffer curve in an economy with an institutional pension scheme. The research involved a three-stage analysis with the use of available statistical data on OECD countries and a World Bank database. In the first and second stages of the study, only 16 of 34 OECD economies examined by the author met the criteria of the model for 2001-2010. However, calculations based on the available statistics confirmed the model’s predictions, Chrzonstowski says. The author concludes that the Laffer curve can rise to a maximum for any OECD economy. The maximum can range from 0 to 1, depending on the ratio of pensioners to the working population and on the output elasticity of capital in an economy.