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RESEARCH PAPER
Monitoring Vulnerabilities in the Residential Real Estate Sector in Poland
1
European Central Bank, European Systemic Risk Board Secretariat, Germany
Submission date: 2019-09-27
Final revision date: 2020-02-28
Acceptance date: 2020-04-16
Publication date: 2020-06-30
Corresponding author
GNPJE 2020;302(2):5-24
KEYWORDS
JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
ABSTRACT
This paper applies a framework for monitoring vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector to the case of Poland. The framework considers indicators across three dimensions of real estate-related vulnerabilities, i.e. valuation, household indebtedness and the bank credit cycle, and builds a composite model-free measure shown to have a significant forecasting performance for real estate crises. The paper shows how the monitoring can be implemented for the Polish market, discusses the developments from a historical perspective, and highlights remaining data gaps.
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