RESEARCH PAPER
Quantifi cation of Changes in the VAT Gap: An Econometric Approach
 
 
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1
Departament Polityki Makroekonomicznej, Ministerstwo Finansów, Polska
2
Katedra Ekonomii Stosowanej, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Polska
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Karolina Konopczak   

Departament Polityki Makroekonomicznej, Ministerstwo Finansów, Polska; Katedra Ekonomii Stosowanej, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Polska
Publication date: 2020-06-30
Submission date: 2019-10-17
Final revision date: 2020-01-24
Acceptance date: 2020-04-16
 
GNPJE 2020;302(2):25–42
KEYWORDS
JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
ABSTRACT
This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating changes in the VAT gap that allows for their timely (quarterly) monitoring. It combines two traditions of tax modelling: calculating a discrepancy between theoretical tax liabilities and the amount of tax actually collected, as well as estimating the elasticities of tax revenues. In this approach, the VAT gap trajectory is associated with a changing elasticity of actual tax revenues with respect to theoretical revenues (or, equivalently, the elasticity of actual revenues corrected for changes in the tax system with respect to the tax base). The method was used to estimate changes in the VAT gap in Poland from 2016 to 2018.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions she is affiliated with.
 
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