PL EN
 
PL EN
Current issue
About the journal
Publishing ethics
For authors
Past issues
Contact us
2/2020 vol. 302
Stats
CC-BY 4.0
Get citation
RESEARCH PAPER
Quantification of Changes in the VAT Gap: An Econometric Approach
Karolina Konopczak 1, 2  
 
More details
Hide details
1
Departament Polityki Makroekonomicznej, Ministerstwo Finansów, Polska
2
Katedra Ekonomii Stosowanej, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Polska
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Karolina Konopczak   

Departament Polityki Makroekonomicznej, Ministerstwo Finansów, Polska; Katedra Ekonomii Stosowanej, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Polska
Submission date: 2019-10-17
Final revision date: 2020-01-24
Acceptance date: 2020-04-16
Publication date: 2020-06-30
 
GNPJE 2020;302(2):25–42
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33119/GN/120624
 
 
Article (PDF)
References (47)
 
KEYWORDS
cointegration
VAT gap
tax elasticities
ARDL model
 
JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
C22
H20
H26
 
ABSTRACT
This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating changes in the VAT gap that allows for their timely (quarterly) monitoring. It combines two traditions of tax modelling: calculating a discrepancy between theoretical tax liabilities and the amount of tax actually collected, as well as estimating the elasticities of tax revenues. In this approach, the VAT gap trajectory is associated with a changing elasticity of actual tax revenues with respect to theoretical revenues (or, equivalently, the elasticity of actual revenues corrected for changes in the tax system with respect to the tax base). The method was used to estimate changes in the VAT gap in Poland from 2016 to 2018.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions she is affiliated with.
 
REFERENCES (47)
1.
Adamczyk A., Czyż M. [2015], Determinanty luki podatkowej w VAT w krajach Unii Europej¬skiej, Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego. Finanse, Rynki Finansowe, Ubezpiecze¬nia, 76 (1): 125–134.
Google Scholar
 
 
2.
Agha A., Haughton J. [1996], Designing VAT Systems: Some Efficiency Considerations, Review of Economics and Statistics, 78 (2): 303–308.
Google Scholar
 
 
3.
Aigner D., Lovell C. K., Schmidt P. [1977], Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models, Journal of Econometrics, 6 (1): 21–37.
Google Scholar
 
 
4.
Bajada C., Schneider F. [2005], The Shadow Economies of the Asia-Pacific, Pacific Economic Review, 10 (3): 379–401.
Google Scholar
 
 
5.
Bierens H., Martins L. [2010], Time-varying cointegration, Econometric Theory, 26 (5): 1453–1490.
Google Scholar
 
 
6.
Breusch T. [2005], The Canadian underground economy: An examination of Giles and Tedds, Canadian Tax Journal, 53 (2): 367–391.
Google Scholar
 
 
7.
Buckland S., Burnham K., Augustin N. [1997], Model selection: an integral part of inference, Biometrics, 53 (2): 603–618.
Google Scholar
 
 
8.
Cagan P. [1958], The demand for currency relative to the total money supply, Journal of Political Economy, 66 (1): 34–46.
Google Scholar
 
 
9.
Christie E., Holzner M. [2006], What Explains Tax Evasion? An Empirical Assessment based on European Data, WIIW Working Papers, 40.
Google Scholar
 
 
10.
Dz.U. [2018] Ustawa z dnia 11 marca 2004 r. o podatku od towarów i usług, Dz.U. 2018, poz. 2174 z późn. zm.
Google Scholar
 
 
11.
Del’Anno R., Schneider F. [2003], The shadow economy of Italy and other OECD countries: what do we know?, Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice, 21 (2–3): 223–245.
Google Scholar
 
 
12.
Engle R., Granger C. W. [1987], Co integration and error correction representation, estimation and testing, Econometrica, 55 (2): 251–276.
Google Scholar
 
 
13.
Frey B., Weck H. [1983], Estimating the shadow economy: a ‘naïve’ approach, Oxford Economic Papers, 35 (1): 23–44.
Google Scholar
 
 
14.
Frey B., Weck-Hanneman H. [1984], The Hidden Economy as an ‘unobserved’ Variable, Euro¬pean Economic Review, 26 (1–2): 33–53.
Google Scholar
 
 
15.
Gemmell N., Hasseldine J. [2012], The tax gap: a methodological review, Advances in Taxation, 20: 203–231.
Google Scholar
 
 
16.
Gemmell N., Hasseldine J. [2015], Taxpayers’ Behavioural Responses and Measures of Tax Compliance ‘Gaps’: A Critique and a New Measure, Fiscal Studies, 35 (3): 275–296.
Google Scholar
 
 
17.
Giles D. [1999], Measuring the Hidden Economy: Implications for Econometric Modelling, Economic Journal, 109 (456): 370–380.
Google Scholar
 
 
18.
Giles D., Tedds L. [2002], Taxes and the Canadian underground economy, Canadian Tax Paper, 106.
Google Scholar
 
 
19.
Giles D., Tedds L., Gugsa W. [2002], The Canadian underground and measured economies, Applied Economics, 34 (18): 2347–2352.
Google Scholar
 
 
20.
Gutmann P. [1977], The Subterranean Economy, Financial Analysts Journal, 33 (6): 26–27.
Google Scholar
 
 
21.
Johansen S. [1988], Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3): 231–254.
Google Scholar
 
 
22.
Kaufmann D., Kaliberda A. [1996], Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post socialist economies: a framework of analyses and evidence, w: Kaminski B. (ed.), Economic Transition in Russia and the New States of Eurasia, London, M. E. Sharpe.
Google Scholar
 
 
23.
Komisja Europejska [2013], Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States, https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_....
Google Scholar
 
 
24.
Komisja Europejska [2014], Update Report to the Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States, https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_....
Google Scholar
 
 
25.
Komisja Europejska [2015], Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU Member States: 2015 Report, https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_....
Google Scholar
 
 
26.
Komisja Europejska [2016a], Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2016 Final Report, https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_....
Google Scholar
 
 
27.
Komisja Europejska [2016b], The Concept of Tax Gaps: Report on VAT Gap Estimation, https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_....
Google Scholar
 
 
28.
Komisja Europejska [2017], Study and Reports on the VAT gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2017 Final Report, https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_....
Google Scholar
 
 
29.
Komisja Europejska [2018], Study and Reports on the VAT gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2018 Final Report, https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_....
Google Scholar
 
 
30.
Koop G., León-González R., Strachan R. [2011], Bayesian Inference in a Time Varying Cointe¬gration Model, Journal of Econometrics, 165 (2): 210–220.
Google Scholar
 
 
31.
Mazur T., Bach D., Juźwik A., Czechowicz I., Bieńkowska J. [2019], Raport na temat wielkości luki podatkowej w podatku VAT w Polsce w latach 2004–2017, MF Opracowania i Analizy, 3, https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse....
Google Scholar
 
 
32.
Nerudova D., Dobranschi M. [2019], Alternative method to measure the VAT gap in the EU: Stochastic tax frontier model approach, PLoS ONE, 14 (1): 1–38.
Google Scholar
 
 
33.
OECD [2002], Measuring the Non-Observed Economy – A Handbook, https://www.oecd.org/ sdd/na/1963116.pdf.
Google Scholar
 
 
34.
Park J., Hahn [1999], Cointegrating Regression with Time Varying Coefficients, Econometric Theory, 15 (5): 664–703.
Google Scholar
 
 
35.
Pesaran H. M., Timmermann A. [2007) Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks, Journal of Econometrics, 137: 495–510.
Google Scholar
 
 
36.
Pesaran M. H., Shin Y. [1999], An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointe¬gration Analysis, w: Strom S. (ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar
 
 
37.
Pesaran M. H., Shin Y., Smith R. J. [2001], Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3): 289–326.
Google Scholar
 
 
38.
Rada Ministrów [2019], Sprawozdanie z wykonania Budżetu Państwa za okres od 1 stycznia do 31 grudnia 2018 r., https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse....
Google Scholar
 
 
39.
Reckon [2009], Study to quantify and analyse the VAT gap in the EU-25 Member States, https:// ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/....
Google Scholar
 
 
40.
Schneider F. [2005], Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?, European Journal of Political Economy, 21 (3): 598–642.
Google Scholar
 
 
41.
Schneider F., Bühn A. [2013], Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions, CESifo Working Paper, 4448.
Google Scholar
 
 
42.
Szczypińska A. [2019], What drives the VAT gap in the European Union?, Roczniki KAE, 55: 69–82.
Google Scholar
 
 
43.
Tanzi V. [1980], The underground economy in the United States: estimates and implications, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Working Paper, 135.
Google Scholar
 
 
44.
Tanzi V. [1983], The underground economy in the United States: annual estimates, 1930–1980, IMF Staff Paper, 30.
Google Scholar
 
 
45.
Tax Justice Network [2011], The Cost of Tax Abuse. A Briefing Paper on the Cost of Tax Evasion Worldwide, https://www.taxjustice.net/wp-... TJN-2011.pdf.
Google Scholar
 
 
46.
Zellner A. [1970], Estimation of regression relationships containing unobservable independent Variables, International Economic Review, 11 (3): 441–454.
Google Scholar
 
 
47.
Zidkova H. [2014], Determinants of Vat Gap In EU, Prague Economic Papers, 4: 514–530.
Google Scholar
 
 
Share
Send by email
RELATED ARTICLE
Asymmetry Between Crude Oil and Retail Fuel Prices in Poland
Indexes
 
Keywords index
JEL Classification Codes index
Authors index
eISSN:2300-5238
ISSN:0867-0005
The system was developed as part of the task "Digitization of the journal Gospodarka Narodowa," financed under contract 555/P-DUN/2018 from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education funds allocated from the dissemination of science.

© 2006-2021 Journal hosting platform by Bentus