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2/2020 vol. 302
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RESEARCH PAPER
Quantification of Changes in the VAT Gap: An Econometric Approach
 
 
 
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1
Departament Polityki Makroekonomicznej, Ministerstwo Finansów, Polska
2
Katedra Ekonomii Stosowanej, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Polska
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Karolina Konopczak   

Departament Polityki Makroekonomicznej, Ministerstwo Finansów, Polska; Katedra Ekonomii Stosowanej, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Polska
Submission date: 2019-10-17
Final revision date: 2020-01-24
Acceptance date: 2020-04-16
Publication date: 2020-06-30
 
GNPJE 2020;302(2):25–42
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33119/GN/120624
 
 
Article (PDF)
References (47)
 
KEYWORDS
cointegration
VAT gap
tax elasticities
ARDL model
 
JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
C22
H20
H26
 
ABSTRACT
This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating changes in the VAT gap that allows for their timely (quarterly) monitoring. It combines two traditions of tax modelling: calculating a discrepancy between theoretical tax liabilities and the amount of tax actually collected, as well as estimating the elasticities of tax revenues. In this approach, the VAT gap trajectory is associated with a changing elasticity of actual tax revenues with respect to theoretical revenues (or, equivalently, the elasticity of actual revenues corrected for changes in the tax system with respect to the tax base). The method was used to estimate changes in the VAT gap in Poland from 2016 to 2018.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions she is affiliated with.
 
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