Structural Change, Business Cycles and Employment in Poland’s Manufacturing Sector
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Publication date: 2013-09-30
GNPJE 2013;266(9):91-115
The article examines the impact of changes in the sector breakdown of employment on the level of employment in Poland’s manufacturing industry. To investigate the scope of structural changes, the author uses a method originally developed by Groshen and Potter (2003). The method assumes that changes in employment are structural in nature if they have the same direction at a time of both recession and recovery (for example, if employment in the sector rises or falls in both periods). Cyclical changes occur if their direction at a time of recession is different from that at a time of recovery – for example, if employment in the sector falls during a recession, while rising at a time of recovery, the author says. The study finds that sectors that lost out as a result of structural changes in the analyzed period accounted for a decreasing proportion of total manufacturing sector employment. At the same time, the role of pro-cyclical sectors increased, the author says. He adds that the drop in demand for labor related to the economic downturn at the end of the last decade was less acute than the decline at the end of the preceding decade. This shows that traditional macroeconomic policies can have a greater impact on employment than other measures, especially in manufacturing, Bartosik concludes.
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