International Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy
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Publication date: 2015-12-31
GNPJE 2015;280(6):5-28
The recent financial and economic crisis was followed by an unprecedented monetary policy response. Major central banks adopted a highly accommodative monetary policy stance, cutting their policy interest rates to near zero. Then, as the zero bound on nominal interest rates is a significant constraint on central bank action, further stimulus was provided by unorthodox tools. The paper investigates whether unconventional monetary policy produces spillover effects from advanced economies into emerging markets. While unconventional central bank interventions have mitigated dysfunction in targeted markets in developed countries, they could have produced spillover effects associated with the inflow of capital and higher volatility in currency and financial markets in developing countries. The results suggest that there are indeed global spillovers and externalities from monetary policy decisions in advanced economies. However, it is difficult to determine whether such externalities are overall positive or negative for other economies, the author says. The potentially undesirable effects of these measures on the procyclicality of capital flows to emerging market economies (EME) need to be weighed against potential benefits such as increased economic activity and better functioning of financial markets in the global economy. Recent research suggests that adjustments in policy rates and unconventional policies have similar cross-border effects on asset prices and economic outcomes. If that is so, the author argues, then the overall stance of policy accommodation matters more here than the particular form of easing.
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