Poland’s Potential Product in 1993-2004 on the Basis of the Production Function
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Publication date: 2005-06-30
GNPJE 2005;200(5-6):37-48
The paper examines the “product gap” in the Polish economy in 1993-2004. The author estimates the non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization (NAICU), and he also analyzes unemployment using the Hodrick-Prescott filter method. The results of the analysis indicate that the Polish economy in 1993-95 was below its potential level of utilization of factors of production. In 1995-99, dynamic economic growth spurred by efficient reforms at the start of the 1990s led to the overstepping of the potential level of capacity utilization. During the recession of 2000-02, the real product was lower than expected due to consistent restructuring. The rebound of 2003 led to a quick bridging of the gap. The increase of the product above its potential value was due to a lack of growth in investment spending as well as structural problems on the labor market. The author notes that the analysis of the potential level of the product should be an important element of economic policy, because it makes it possible to determine the position of the economy in the business cycle.
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