The Inflation Expectations of Polish Enterprises and the Transparency of Central Bank Policy
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Publication date: 2007-04-30
GNPJE 2007;215(4):49–70
The paper analyzes the inflationary expectations of Polish enterprises and attempts to interpret them in the context of the transparency of monetary policy. The study presents the evolution of monetary policy transparency in Poland since the introduction of the direct inflation targeting strategy and examines the rationality of inflation expectations among businesses in light of the changing communication strategies of the Polish central bank. A new method is proposed to investigate the development of enterprises’ inflation expectations. This method uses information about the distribution of these expectations, which makes it possible to estimate their rationality for each quarter covered by the analysis. This approach makes it possible to examine changes in inflation expectations and the influence of monetary policy. The results of the analysis indicate that inflation expectations in the corporate sector were relatively rational throughout the analyzed period, with no significant changes over time. Therefore the impact of monetary policy transparency on inflation expectations in Poland’s corporate sector appears to be limited, the authors conclude. However, they add that this influence may actually be greater than it seems because the full effect of monetary policy may only be felt after a considerable time lag.