New Political and Economic Circumstances Surrounding Polish Accession to the Eurozone
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Wyższa Szkoła Finansów i Zarządzania w Warszawie, Katedra Finansów Publicznych i Międzynarodowych
Submission date: 2017-12-03
Acceptance date: 2018-04-25
Publication date: 2018-06-30
GNPJE 2018;294(2):29-47
The objective of this article is to demonstrate how political and economic circumstances surrounding Poland’s prospective accession to the eurozone have changed over the last decade and what conclusions can be drawn from these changes. With this objective in mind, it is first important to understand how Poland’s geopolitical situation has changed unfavourably in recent years and what threats arise from this. Next, the evolution of economists’ views on the cost-benefit balance of eurozone accession and the purpose of adopting the euro are critically evaluated. Three conclusions have been formulated. First, in the new political situation, it should be in Poland’s vital national interest to ensure that the European Union is in the best possible condition and to establish a favourable position within the EU. It appears to be highly unlikely that this objective will be accomplished without Poland joining the eurozone. Second, contrary to a widespread view, eurozone accession does not necessarily entail a high risk of economic crisis or long-term stagnation. New studies demonstrate that the serious problems that some eurozone countries have experienced were, to a larger extent, a consequence of political mistakes made by these countries rather than institutional defects of the eurozone. Analysis of these mistakes and remedial action taken will make it possible to seriously limit the economic risk related to eurozone accession. Third, the issue discussed in this article is of fundamental significance to the future of Poland and it should be addressed by decision makers, even if Poland’s current authorities are highly sceptical of eurozone entry.
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