Emerging Market Economies in the Face of a Financial Crisis: Resilience or Vulnerability?
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Publication date: 2010-09-30
GNPJE 2010;242(9):25-45
The paper is concerned with selected aspects oftheoretical and empirical analysis that help better understand the role of factors determining the resilience of medium-developed countries to financial crises. The analysis is made in the context of the latest crisis, which began in highly developed economies. The second part of the paper focuses on some widely disputed issues involving a theoretical explanation of the causes behind the latest crisis. Even though, in the case of emerging market economies, the original causes behind the crisis can be treated as external ones, Wojtyna says, they need to be scrutinized because of the interaction between the financial sector and the real economy. This interaction is similar in both medium-developed and highly developed countries, according to the author. Part 3 focuses on global imbalances and their role in transmitting the crisis to and from medium-developed countries. This trend is linked with the wider problem of the costs and benefits of financial globalization and the decoupling hypothesis debated in the context of business cycles in highly and medium-developed economies. Part 4 discusses the results of empirical studies designed to check the importance of factors determining the resilience of medium-developed countries to the latest crisis. A more detailed evaluation of the resilience of emerging market economies to the latest crisis could be made after anti-crisis measures taken by governments and central banks in highly developed countries cease to influence these countries’ economies, Wojtyna says. Preliminary findings in this area are encouraging for medium-developed countries, he adds. According to the author, changes in macroeconomic policy as well as structural and institutional changes carried out in response to previous crises have significantly reduced medium-developed countries’ vulnerability to global crises.
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