Exogenous Measures of Technology Shocks as Used in Poland in 2005-2009
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Publication date: 2010-06-30
GNPJE 2010;240(5-6):61–72
The paper describes methods for measuring technology shocks and compares various indirect measures of technology shocks, including the so-called Solow residual and its modifications. Apart from the conventional Solow residual, the author uses modified indicators to illustrate changes in factors of production; he approximates productivity by analyzing electricity consumption (capital) and the number of hours worked and work accidents (labor). The main criterion used by the author to check if a technology shock measure is correct is its autonomy (exogeneity) from non-technology shocks that may occur in the economy, such as monetary shocks, fiscal shocks or external shocks. Truskolaski uses the Granger causality test to determine if each version of the residual is independent from non-technology shock variables. The test was conducted for 12 industries making up Poland’s manufacturing sector in 2005-2009. The conventional residual is independent from non-technology shocks in low-tech sectors, Truskolaski says. In high- and medium-high-tech sectors, on the other hand, corrections linked with the variable use of factors of production are far more important, according to the author. In terms of independence from non-technology shocks, the best measure is a residual used to estimate changes in both factors of production, capital and labor, Truskolaski concludes.